By Bernd Radowitz,
Rio de Janeiro, Oct 11, 2007
Source:Marketwatch.com
http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/hybrid-cars-still-seen-distant/
story.aspx?guid=%7B24DEC4D6-ACA1-4FDD-A0B6-6C38AD5F2E6C%7D
Hybrid cars are still distant from reaching an economic break-even point for consumers - even in markets with high fuel prices, a representative for the World Energy Council said. “Electric motors and batteries involve extra cost,” said Simon Godwin, the lead author of a WEC report on transport scenarios through 2050 presented here last week. “You should get down to the point where that extra cost can be covered by fuel savings.”
Godwin also works as manager for automobile issues at Daimler AG.
Hybrid vehicles combine combustion engines running on fuels with electric motors in order to save fuel and reduce emissions of greenhouse gases.
Even in regions with high fuel prices, such as the European Union, hybrids would need to sell at a premium not exceeding $1,900 for consumers to recover their extra costs through fuel savings, a WEC study shows. The assumption of the study is that customers consider three years of fuel savings amid extensive driving.
Yet, some of the more popular hybrid models currently on the market - such as the Toyota Camry Hybrid or the Ford Escape Hybrid - currently sell at a premium of about $3,000 to $4,000 to comparable non-hybrid models.
“In certain areas and for some consumers, the economic purchasing rational is positive, but we can’t yet call it a consistent break-even,” Godwin said.
Such areas are, for example, very large cities with intense stop-and-go traffic, such as Tokyo. In such areas, hybrids perform best as they can recuperate breaking energy and reuse it for driving, Godwin explained.
Despite the challenges, the WEC sees a rationale for hybrid technology as a measure to counter at least part of the rapidly rising energy consumption by transportation.
Global energy demand is predicted to grow by 70% from 2003 to 2030, with transport representing a constant 20% of that demand, according to data from the U.S. government’s Energy Information Administration.
Individual vehicles will continue to dominate passenger transport through 2050, according to the International Energy Agency. Those vehicles will still be fueled mostly by diesel and gasoline, with biofuels gaining just a foothold, the WEC believes.
Daimler earlier this year announced plans to bring two hybrid vehicles, the Mercedes ML 450 Hybrid and the S 400 Hybrid, on the market in 2009. A year later, the carmaker plans to bring additional hybrid versions of its E and S class to the European market.
Yet, those models all are seen as “premium products” that are less price-sensitive, Godwin admits.   One of the best applications for hybrids is city bus traffic, in which, due to its constant stopping and starting, hybrids bring a very high savings, Godwin added. Daimler has sold nearly 1,000 hybrid diesel buses in the U.S. in the past few years, he said.
Future For Fuel Cells?
If breaking even is a challenge for hybrids, it seems to be an even much more distant future scenario for hydrogen-powered fuel cell cars.
“The hydrogen economy is in such an early stage and there is no mass market for fuel cell vehicles yet,” Godwin said. Daimler has “a hundred fuel cell vehicles on the road at the moment, and we are running the biggest fleet worldwide.”
However, the first series fuel cell vehicles will be on the market between 2012 and 2015, Daimler reckons. The challenges for fuel cells are costs and range, among others. To store hydrogen, cars still need to be equipped with relatively large tanks. “The amount of hydrogen you can store in the space on board for fuel cells is much less in terms of energy content than the one you can store in gasoline,” Godwin explained.
On the other hand, the efficiency of a fuel cell is twice as high in comparison to an internal combustion engine. Daimler is currently developing a technology to allow cars to run 400 kilometers on hydrogen stored in a storage space similar to conventional gasoline tanks. This will be implemented in the Mercedes-Benz B-Class F-Cell, which will be produced in a small series in 2010.
A continued rise in oil prices and a more dramatic climate change situation “would most certainly provide a bigger incentive for fuel cell vehicles,” Godwin said. “But I can’t put an exact figure on this, as these things are very uncertain.”